Corporate activity has diverged from the typical summer lull, with 67% more issuance of USD IG corporate bonds in August 2026 than the trailing 10-year August average. Equity capital markets activity has been similarly frenetic. Notable merger talks include AstraZeneca's $120bn+ proposed takeover of flailing rival Bristol-Myers and Banca Monte dei Piaschi (MPS) pursuing Banco BPM and Banca Generali for a combined €34bn to fend off Intesa Sanpaolo which began pursing MPS in Ju

The US-Iran war looks to have resumed in the first days of July adding upward pressure to Treasury yields via higher inflation expectations. Even prior to these developments we have been expecting Treasury bond yields are likely to remain higher than prior to the conflict as inflation rates are rising. Data released in June showed that Core PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation measure) rose to 3.4% continuing an upward trend which began in June 2025. New Fed Chairman Kevin Wars

Political and geopolitical instability dominated financial markets in May. The decimation of the ruling Labour party at local elections paved the way for a leadership contest in the UK. Hard left candidates circling Prime Minister Kier Starmer's stoked an already twitchy bond market and pushed the UK-US 10yr spread ('moron premium') towards financial crisis-era extremes. Meanwhile hotter than expected inflation prints in the US are pushing the Fed under newly instated Chairma